Time Series Association between Suicides and Alcohol Psychoses in Belarus
Abstract
Razvodovsky YE
Background: The level of alcohol consumption and the suicide rate in the former Soviet Slavic republic Belarus are both among the highest in the world. As a predominantly spirits drinking country, Belarus is characterized by infrequent, but heavy (binge) drinking leading to high rates of acute alcohol-related problems.
Aim: The aim of the present study was to estimate effect of alcohol on suicide mortality rate in Belarus using aggregate-level data of suicide mortality and alcohol psychoses rates. Methods: Trends in suicides and alcohol psychoses incidence rates (as a proxy for alcohol consumption) from 1979 to 2007 were analyzed employing an unconstrained polynomial distributed lags analysis in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series.
Results: According to Bureau of Forensic Medicine autopsy reports the suicide rate increased by 41.2%, and alcohol psychoses rate increased 2 times in Belarus. Alcohol in blood was found in 62% suicide victims for the whole period, with the minimum figure 49.3% in 1988 and maximum 68.5% in 1981. Alcohol-related suicides were more affected by the restriction of alcohol availability during the anti-alcohol campaign: between 1984 and 1986 the number of BAC-positive suicide cases drop by 54.2%, while number of BAC-negative suicides decreased by 7.1%. The results of distributed lags analysis indicated statistically significant relationship between alcohol psychoses rate and a number of BAC-positive suicides.
Conclusion: The results of present study indicate that a restrictive alcohol policy can be considered as an effective measure of suicide prevention in countries where rates of both alcohol consumption and suicide are high.