The Pandemic’s Two Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing

Abstract

Robert L Martin

Since COVID-19 arose almost five years ago, the US has reported 1.1 million COVID-19 deaths, and the world has reported 7.7 million COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths suggest that the world COVID-19 deaths are perhaps a factor of two or three higher than the 7.7 million that have been reported [1]. The original “Wuhan wild type” virus has evolved into tens of thousands of different forms called variants. When an alarming variant arose, the World Health Organization (WHO) would call it a Variant of Concern. Examples of Variants of Concern are Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron. Alpha, Beta and Delta were more transmissible and more deadly than the Wuhan wild type.

When Omicron, BA.1.529, was discovered in Africa in November 2021, its 50 new mutations alarmed the world. What could this Lernaean Hydra ferocious Greek snake-like monster with multiple heads do? It turned out Omicron was a sheep in wolf’s clothing. While it was highly transmissible, it was less lethal than all previous Variants of Concern and the original Wuhan wild type.

When the Pirola variant, BA.2.86, arose in August 2023, its 36 new mutations alarmed the world. This alarm was exacerbated by Pirola being on a distant evolutionary path from Kraken, XBB.1.5, upon which the 2023 fall and 2024 spring boosters were based. Yet again, however, Pirola was a sheep in wolf’s clothing. Though BA.2.86-based variants were much more transmissible than XBB.1.5-based variants, Pirola evolved to have a significantly lower-case fatality rate.

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