Significant Waning of Active Cases of Covid-19 With High Recovery After Three Months of Complete Lockdown: Plausible Implication On Emergence of Herd Immunity in The Population

Abstract

Prabir Chakravarty

COVID-19 is fast spreading around the globe in a highly contagious manner. Until date there are no therapeutic agents/vaccines developed which could control this highly infectious virus from spreading among human population. Our earlier studies showed that implementation of prolonged lockdown had a profound effect on the rate of spread of COVID-19 in the population. The observed increase in doubling time of COVID-19 with a high recovery rate following complete Lockdown reflected that protective immunity may be present in the population. In this article, the data from three months following completion of Lockdown was considered. The results reflected that there was a significant down trend in the rate of COVID-19 with high recovery rate reaching up to 83% of the affected cases of COVID-19 by September 30, 2020. The projection made from the data up to 30 November, 2020, pointed towards continued decrease in active cases of COVID-19. Concomitant with this result, the recovery from COVID-19 reached to ~90% by end of October, 2020. The significance of the above mentioned results with rapid fall in active cases from end of September 30, 2020, in spite of increased testing for COVID-19 in generating immunity against COVID-19 is discussed.

PDF