Machine Learning Models for Predicting Heart Failure: Unveiling Patterns and Enhancing Precision in Cardiac Risk Assessment

Abstract

Mahdi Navaei and Zohreh Doogchi

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of various machine learning models in predicting heart failure incidence using medical data, focusing on the innovative aspect of a novel dataset. Unlike previous studies that predominantly examined features such as smoking status or age, this research explores novel features. The primary challenge addressed is the utilization of these new features, coupled with machine learning techniques, to accurately diagnose heart failure.

Methods Five machine learning models, including logistic regression, support vector classifier, decision tree classifier, random forest classifier, and K-nearest neighbors, were applied to analyze medical data from a dataset comprising over 900 individuals. The dataset encompasses diverse parameters such as age, sex, chest pain severity, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, blood sugar levels, and electrocardiogram results, introducing a novel approach to feature selection.

Results The evaluation of machine learning models unveiled varying performances in predicting heart failure. Logistic regression and support vector classifier exhibited the highest accuracy of 88%, followed by the decision tree classifier (below 85%), random forest classifier (84%), and K-nearest neighbors (82%). Additionally, the analysis revealed a balanced dataset distribution and highlighted sex-based disparities in heart failure incidence, along with significant correlations with factors such as age, chest pain severity, blood glucose levels, and physical activity.

Conclusions The findings underscore the potential of integrating multiple machine learning models for early detection of heart failure, leveraging the inclusion of novel features in the dataset. However, careful model selection is crucial to account for discrepancies in accuracy among different models, emphasizing the importance of tailoring approaches based on specific project requirements.

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