Infant Mortality Rates and GDP Per Capita in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation Based on Fractional Integration.

Abstract

Luis A. Gil-Alana and Robert Mudida

This paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between the infant mortality rates and the GDP per capita in Kenya using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The results show that the two series are highly persistent, with the effects of the shocks persisting forever. However, the multivariate work reveals that the two series are fractionally counteracted, showing a long run equilibrium relationship that tends to persist and disappear slowly in the long run. This relationship is important for public policy implying a synergy of development outcomes since it suggests that the current emphasis in Kenya’s Vision 2030 on raising per capita income is likely to have positive and long-term effects on the vital health outcome of infant mortality. Our analysis therefore provides additional support for the growth approach to reducing infant mortality. It reinforces the view that growth in per capita income is considered as necessary for sustaining infant mortality improvements although not necessarily sufficient.

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