Goodness-of-Fit of Wind Speed for Probability Distribution in Central Western Brazil

Abstract

Amaury de Souza, Ivana Pobocikova, José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Umesh C Dumka, Marcel Carvalho Abreu, Razika Ihaddadene, Guilherme Henrique Cavazzana, Carlos José dos Reis, Nabila Ihaddadene, Flavio Aristone, Zaccheus O. Olaofe, Torsen Emmanuel and Vikram Kumar

The adjustment of statistical models to wind speed data makes it possible to know in detail the wind energy potential of a given location, representing a relevant data in the selection of the location for new installations of wind farms. The objective of this study was to evaluate the fit of average wind speed data for Brasilia, Campo Grande, Cuiaba and Goiania in central western Brazil, to the probability distributions functions (PDF) of: GEV, GUM and LN. The statistical criteria, KS, R2, χ2, RMSE, AIC and BIC were considered as judgment criteria to assess the adequacy of PDF. As the main result, the GEV distribution was the one that presented the best result of adjustments to the functions , mainly in the potential of wind energy use and extreme winds that cause felling of trees in the urban environment. These distributions can be used as an alternative distribution that adequately describes the wind speed data in the region. The weakest configurations were obtained by the GUM and LN distributions.

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