Estimation of Reproduction Number of SARS-COV-2 Omicron Variant Outbreak in Hong Kong

Abstract

Mattia Allieta, Jelena Komlos and Davide Rossi Sebastiano

We present the evolution of time dependent reproduction number across the five different Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China (HK) epidemic waves from January, 2020, to March, 2022. We provide reliable estimation of reproduction number of Omicron variant of concern (VOC) by analysing data related to fifth wave to determine its peculiar characteristics with respect to the other VOCs. HK could be considered as the optimal model for the calculation of the dynamics of Omicron VOC transmission in an environment representative of the fully populated cities of the Asian Pacific coast. On the basis of Rt calculated for Omicron VOC in our work, researchers could refine provisional data for the current outbreak which is affecting China.

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