Computational Correlational Studies of Tropical Cyclone Energetic with Dynamical Fluid Motions and Physical Features of Meso-Scale Convective Systems to Develop Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting Models TC- NFM

Abstract

Virendra Goswami

The present Tropical Cyclones/Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (TCFM/HWRF) system can forecast the inner core structure of the Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes out to 5 days. Hence, efforts are to be made to test, evaluate, and improve pre- dictions of Hurricane’s track(motion), intensity, speed, and inner core Structure, beyond 5 days ,through the study of Hurricane energetic in correlation with dynamical fluid motions and physical features (e.g. radiative transfer, chemistry, cloud processes), of meso-scale NH-SH Convective systems in order to develop a unique Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Forecast Models (TCFM/ HFM), acting as an Operational real-time forecast guidance for all global tropical cyclones/hurricanes across the Atlantic, Asia Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere ocean basins.

The key to this new prediction system (TCFM/HFM) would be the development of a very fine (1deg–1deg) grid nests moving with individual storms within the global model, having a coupling capability for these nests in space & time mode. (TCFM/HFM) would be coupled to Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean basins Storms, so that its grid filter gets updated whenever, there are active cyclonic storms in these basins.

Next, the high-resolution Satellite imageries of the two Super Cyclonic Storms (SCS) over the Atlantic& North Indian Oceanic basins occurred during May-October 2020 would be examined with emphasis on the large scale kinematic and thermodynamic behavior of these two SCS named Laura’(Atlantic,26Aug’20,240Kmph,937hPa) Amphan’(BOB,17May’20,240Kmph,920hPa) & other selected mesoscale Convective Systems, e.g. intense Cloud Clusters Thunderstorms, Depression, by making use of Aircraft, Doppler Weather Radar and conventional data over the selected domain in order to study mathematical and computational aspects of weather and climate through spatial struc- ture of Cloud field incorporating the Tropical Cyclones/Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Models (HWRF).

Based on Suchman, Cloud Cluster studies, wherein, the two plausible Models of Monsoon Depression have been postulated in terms of Cluster Coalescence Theory and Giant Cluster Theory along with technique described for inferring vertical mass circula- tions within and around the monsoon depression in tropical regions by making use of satellite imageries, be employed to study the said two SCS over Atlantic & North Indian oceanic basins during the Storm-Cycle (May-Oct)’20 to develop (TCFM/HFM) [1,2].

Next, the Thermodynamic structure of these Hurricanes be studied by computation of deep convective mass transport inside the Cloud Cluster by means of Cloud Tracer Analysis (WINDCO measurements using McIDAS. The Tele-connection of SH features e.g. Depressions, Cyclonic Storms, Equatorial Trough & movement of ITCZ with the identical features of NH, governing the storms activity over the region would also be studied.

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