AI-Based Scenario Generation for Future Planning: An Exploratory Study Using GPT-3

Abstract

David Jungwirth and Daniela Haluza

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a rapidly developing technology that allows machines to process large amounts of data and make pre- dictions. OpenAI's GPT-3 AI is one such example, which has been trained on data available up until June 2021, and had no access to more recent data nor was connected to the internet. The objective of this exploratory study was to investigate the potential of AI in forecasting the escalation of the 2022 Ukrainian war and to determine whether such contribution justifies co-authorship. In a stage-gate methodology, GPT-3's capability for generating future scenarios with estimated probabilities was used to check their consistency and define drivers for evaluating their presence before deciding on AI co-authorship in this publication. The results showed that GPT-3 accurately described the open war as one of the scenarios; however, its capability for predicting the future was limited, and internal consistency of generated scenarios could be improved. Overall, this study demonstrated that GPT-3 has proved itself as powerful for generating future scenarios and re-writing abstracts, like this one. According to our stage-gate ap- proach, GPT-3 did not qualify for co-authorship in this publication. We recommend further scientific discussion and updating best practices and journal guidelines with clear guidelines on AI contributions for future scientific papers.

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